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New Post 8/13/2010 7:02 PM
  stockguy
12 posts
No Ranking


China Mobile Ltd CHL 
CORPORATE OVERVIEW. China Mobile (CHL) is the leading mobile services provider in mainland China,
with more than 548 million subscribers at the end of May 2010. The company had added 27 million subscribers
since the end of 2009. CHL provides a full range of mobile telecommunications services in 21 service
regions in China, covering 16 provinces (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Henan, Hainan, Hebei,
Liaoning, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi and Shanxi), four municipalities
(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing) and one autonomous region (Guangxi Zhuang). The company's
service regions cover many of the economically more advanced provinces, municipalities, and autonomous
regions in mainland China. The total population residing within CHL's service area exceeds one
billion. CHL's majority shareholder is China Mobile (Hong Kong) Group Limited, which indirectly held an equity
interest of 74.2% as of May 31, 2009.
PRIMARY BUSINESS DYNAMICS. CHL offers mobile telecommunications services principally using the
Global System for Mobile Communications, or GSM, standard. GSM is a pan-European mobile telephone
system based on digital transmission and mobile telecommunications network architecture with roaming
capabilities. China's wireless penetration rate reached 58.4% in May 2010, up from 50.7% a year earlier.
This compares with the more than 85% penetration rate of the U.S., leaving room for continued growth.We
believe the growth in wireless is largely the result of China Mobile's aggressive expansion in rural areas of
the country.
LEGAL/REGULATORY ISSUES. In May 2008, the Ministry of Information Industry revealed its restructuring
plans for the telecom industry, including urging China Telecom and China Netcom to combine with parts of
China Unicom, although we believe the restructuring is complex and it will take time to complete the network
upgrades. Along with the revamp, three 3G licenses were issued, with China Mobile operating a
home-developed TD-SCDMA standard, while competitors are upgrading existing networks. The buildout of
these networks began later than originally expected.We believe the issuance of 3G wireless licenses in
China to CHL and other carriers will not significantly change the competitive landscape, with CHL remaining
the industry leader, though it did lose some market share in 2009 and in early 2010.We expect CHL to
encounter challenges in operating the new home-grown network. However, we believe CHL's superior
coverage and capacity will enable it to maintain strong subscriber growth, supporting revenue and EBITDA
gains.
Each ADS represents five ordinary shares.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE. The Chinese government encourages orderly competition in the telecommunications
industry in mainland China. In particular, the Chinese government has extended favorable regulatory
policies to some of CHL's competitors, such as China Unicom, to help them become more viable competitors.
For example, the Chinese government has permitted China Unicom to lower its mobile telecommunications
services tariffs by up to 10% below the government standard rates.We believe that in 2009, China
Mobile average revenue per user declined from a year earlier due to the impact of stronger competition.
Although an industry revamp has resulted in greater competition from wireline companies for the long
term, we think CHL will maintain its market leadership while prolonged network upgrades continue. At the
end of May 2010, CHL accounted for 71% of the total subscribers, down from 74% a year earlier. Meanwhile,
competitor, China Telecom's wireless market share rose to 9.2% from 5.6%.
FINANCIAL TRENDS. In our opinion, the company's strong balance sheet (net cash of CNY 230 billion as of
the end 2009) supports its capital expenditure needs and an announced acquisition. In March 2010, China
Mobile confirmed a pending share subscription agreement with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank at a
total cash consideration of CNY 40 billion.
The company declared a dividend per local share of Hong Kong $2.80 in 2009, and we expect increases to
$2.91 in 2010 and $3.02 in 2011.
 
New Post 8/13/2010 7:02 PM
  stockguy
12 posts
No Ranking


Re: China Mobile Ltd CHL 

 We forecast revenue growth of 6% in 2010 and

5% in 2011, reflecting net subscriber growth. In
2009, the company's subscriber base rose 65
million (14%), but average revenue per user
(ARPU) declined 7%, limiting the gains; in the
first quarter of 2010, subscriber growth was offset
by lower ARPU.We expect subscriber
growth to continue to occur in rural markets
with lower-priced packages, but we think competition
from small carriers in urban markets
will limit the company's market share.
ä Given our forecast of pressure on ARPU and an
increase in SG&A expenses, we believe EBITDA
margins will narrow to 49.2% in 2010 and to
48.8% in 2011, compared to 51.3% in 2009.We
see the company's EBITDA margin narrowing
following the entry of new competitors, and we
think CHL will need to match competitors' aggressive
handset subsidies and increase
spending on its 3G services.
ä Using an exchange rate of 0.128 U.S. dollar per
Hong Kong dollar, we estimate earnings per
ADS from operations of $4.34 for 2010 and $4.48
in 2011, up from $4.25 in 2009.
Investment Rationale/Risk
ä While CHL continued to expand its customer
base in the first five months of 2010, its growth
has slowed from prior years due to an increase
in urban market competition.We expect pressure
on revenue per user to lead to slower
earnings growth than in the past. However, we
like CHL's earnings visibility and market leadership,
and we see its balance sheet as strong,
providing room for dividend support.
ä Risks to our recommendation and target price
include greater-than-expected tariff reductions,
a slowdown in net new subscriber additions,
the possibility of intensifying competitive pressures,
and a weakening local currency versus
the U.S. dollar.
ä We derive our 12-month target price of $54 by
applying a multiple of about 12X to our 2011
earnings per ADS estimate. This multiple is
near peers but below the five-year average for
CHL of 17X, reflecting our expectation for slower
than historical earnings growth. Our DCFbased
valuation, which assumes a net margin
forecast of between 20% and 22.5% and a
WACC of 11.5%, supports our target price.
 
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